上星期提到本港家庭住戶入息中位數為2.76萬元,而按個人職業劃分,專業人員月入中位數更增至4.13萬元。同時過去十年的平均平均按息為4.2%,目前為2.15%,19年中最高的一年是10.9%。要了解業主的承擔能力,我們可以計算不同的收入及利率下,並扣除一般統一約$5000的固定開支(差餉及管理費),看看業主在扣除供樓之後的可支配收入。當然我們在此因為方便計算,不會考慮通漲,工資上升及壓力測試。
以7成按揭成數
入息 |
利率 |
每月還款(30年計) |
每月可支配收入(扣除$5000) |
本金及利息總支出 |
$27,600 |
2.15% |
$15,841 |
$6,759 |
$5,702,743 |
$27,600 |
4.2% |
$20,539 |
$2061 |
$7,393,940 |
$27,600 |
10.9% |
$39,681 |
-$17,081 |
$14,284,996 |
$41,300 |
2.15% |
$15,841 |
$20,459 |
$5,702,743 |
$41,300 |
4.2% |
$20,539 |
$15,761 |
$7,393,940 |
$41,300 |
10.9% |
$39,681 |
-$6,619 |
$14,284,996 |
$60,000 |
2.15% |
$15,841 |
$39,159 |
$5,702,743 |
$60,000 |
4.2% |
$20,539 |
$34,461 |
$7,393,940 |
$60,000 |
10.9% |
$39,681 |
$15,319 |
$14,284,996 |
以9成按揭成數
入息 |
利率 |
每月還款(30年計) |
每月可支配收入(扣除$5000) |
本金及利息總支出 |
$27,600 |
2.15% |
$20,367 |
$2,233 |
$7,332,098 |
$27,600 |
4.2% |
$26,407 |
-$3807 |
$9,506,494 |
$27,600 |
10.9% |
$51,018 |
-$28,418 |
$18,366,423 |
$41,300 |
2.15% |
$20,367 |
$15,933 |
$7,332,098 |
$41,300 |
4.2% |
$26,407 |
$9,893 |
$9,506,494 |
$41,300 |
10.9% |
$51,018 |
-$14,718 |
$18,366,423 |
$60,000 |
2.15% |
$20,367 |
$34,633 |
$7,332,098 |
$60,000 |
4.2% |
$26,407 |
$28,593 |
$9,506,494 |
$60,000 |
10.9% |
$51,018 |
$3,982 |
$18,366,423 |
讀者不難想像$27,600那一組入息的測試中,即使7成按揭成數下在2.15%的利率扣除$5,000基本洗費下基本上每月餘下的可支配收入不多。而在9成按揭成數下一旦加息至4.2%的十九年平均數下每月只餘下2000元。唯$4,1300那組是代表專業人員月入中位數又如何?讀者不難發現在7成按揭成數的情況下的可支配收入仍有分別$20,459及$15,761,唯讀者留意$20,459及$15,761在目前一般三人家庭來說即是每月可月約$5000-7000(事實應該更少,因為水電,上網等基本洗錢仍未計算在內)。但在表中最多人忽略是本金及利息總支出,以4.2%的7及9成按揭成數分別總支出是$7,393,940及$9,506,494。如果收入$41300每月全數去供樓要幾耐才可以供斷9百萬的樓,答案是19.1年。]]>